Value of Serum Estradiol, Progesterone and Beta-Human Chorionic Gonadotropin in Prediction of 1st Trimester Miscarriage within 9 weeks of Gestation

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Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine for Boys, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract

Background: One in five women experience the emotional toll of a threatened miscarriage. Aim and objectives: To forecast the probability of a miscarriage occurring within the first nine weeks of pregnancy, an assessment of serum estradiol, progesterone, as β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-HCG) levels is conducted within the same time frame. Patients and methods: This was a prospective cross-sectional study conducted on eighty-six pregnant women in the first trimester at Obstetrics & Gynecology department of Sayed Galal Hospital, Al-Azhar University. Results: At cutoff point <420, serum estrogen at 5–6-week gestation has 96.6% sensitivity and 92.6% specificity as a predictor for Miscarriage, at cutoff point <18.5, serum Progesterone at 5–6-week gestation has 96.6% sensitivity and 96.3% specificity as predictor for Miscarriage, at cutoff point <657.5, serum HCG at 5–6-week gestation has 94.9% sensitivity and 96.3% specificity as predictor for Miscarriage. At cutoff point <733, serum estrogen at 8–9-week gestation has 98.3% sensitivity and 96.3% specificity as a predictor for Miscarriage; at cutoff point <21.5, serum Progesterone at 8–9-week gestation has 78% sensitivity and 77.8% specificity as predictor for Miscarriage, at cutoff point <2116, serum HCG at 8–9-week gestation has 98.3% sensitivity and 81.5% specificity as predictor for Miscarriage. Conclusion: Regarding hormonal profile at 8-9 gestational weeks, there was statistically significant lower Estrogen, progesterone, and HCG levels in Miscarriage than in the Ongoing pregnancy group.

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